Investment Advice: The STUBL Index

Carl Richards, author of "The Behavior Gap," and a columnist in the NY Times, wrote "Beware of 'Market Predictors' (here)

"To demonstrate how ridiculous market predictors can be, ... David Leinweber decided he could prove a point with butter production in Bangladesh:

    After casting about to find a statistic so absurd that no sensible person could possibly believe it could forecast U.S. stock prices, Mr. Leinweber settled on annual butter production in Bangladesh. Over an 13-year period, he found, this statistic “explained” 75 percent of the variation in the annual returns of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index.

    By tossing in U.S. cheese production and the total population of sheep in both Bangladesh and the U.S., Mr. Leinweber was able to “predict” past U.S. stock returns with 99 percent accuracy."

I've used the STUBL index, pronounced "Stubble" index. It stands for "Standard Transitory Unshaved Beard Length." I look at college students on Monday mornings. When a majority of them are clean-shaven I conclude they went to sleep early enough to get up early and shave, and therefore didn't have a great weekend. When a majority of them have a two day beard I conclude they had a great weekend. 

This is a leading predictor of the market.  However, I'm not sure when the correlation is positive and when it's negative. That's where the crystal ball comes in.

See, it's an integrated approach.

Gingrich "I'll set the price of gasoline at $2.50 per gallon."

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker, former lobbyist, and former husband to two different women, wants to set gasoline prices back to $2.50 per gallon. (here) But how? Would a President Gingrich sign an “Executive Order” setting the price of gasoline at $2.50 per gallon? The President can authorize a mission to attempt to kill terrorists, as Obama did with Bin Laden and Awlaki. But how can the President set the price of a commodity?

I suppose he can order rationing of gasoline – say 10 gallons per citizen per day. And if he does, with my 30 mpg '99 Chevy Malibu w 165,000 miles, I will be able to drive 300 miles per week. If you have a Hummer that gets about 8 mpg, you can go about 80 miles. Or you can buy gas from me for $10 per gallon. (I's a capitalist, yo.)

Or a President Gingrich can say “The market price for gasoline is $5.00 per gallon. But we'll set it artificially to $2.50 via a government subsidies. We'll tax the oil companies." When a lobbyist for the oil companies reminds him that rather than tax oil companies we give them subsidies, as one will, he will flip-flop and tax poor people and the middle class – who don't have lobbyists.

Or, a President Gingrich can say, ““The market price for gasoline is $5.00 per gallon. But we can set it artificially to $2.50 simply by revaluing the dollar so it takes Two Real Dollars to buy one Newt Dollar. As a stroke of marketing genius he could put Reagan's picture on the Newt Dollar. But Newt, never known for his humility, seems more likely to put his own picture on the Newt Dollar.  

Of course, if you have a brain then you'll realize that this is not exactly small government. But then again if you've a brain then you're not going to vote for Mr. Gingrich.

There is actually one other way to cut the price of gasoline: cut demand.

Suppose we build very efficient cars and a mass transit infrastructure. And we do research into bio-gasoline and figure out how to get octane and other hydrocarbons from plants we can grow without fossil fuel based fertilizers, rather than from fossilized plants. The only problem with that strategy is that it requires thinking, science, and engineering. Gingrich and Santorum, like Palin, Bachmann, Perry and Cain don't believe in thinking, science, and engineering (except engineering what people believe). Ron Paul might believe in thinking, science, and engineering, but he doesn't believe that the government should do anything. And Romney might, but he won't admit it until after the convention.

Or maybe Gingrich wants us to go metric, and actually meant $2.50 per liter.  He is getting old. He might be getting confused.

What do we know about President Obama?

Our allies in NATO like and respect President Obama. I don't believe Putin likes him. And I am pretty sure that Achmadinejad is afraid of him. He killed bin Laden and Awlaki (I know he didn't pull the trigger), led NATO to help the insurgents bring down Gadafi, led the international sanctions against Iran, pulled troops out of Iraq, is carefully watching the situation in Syria. He saved the American auto industry - and in so doing saved the midwest from Depression.

He says "I have Israel's back, but don't take my word for it, look at what I've done." His support for Israel at the UN and managing our response to the "Arab Spring" are good for the Americans, Europeans, Israelis, many Arabs, and many Persians, but not for Assad, Achmadinejad, and the Mullahs, or Putin. That's good enough for me.

That's not to say I like everything he's done. There are aspects of his health care, tax, energy, and environmental policies I would like to change.
 
But you asked "what do we know?"

He was born in Hawaii on August 4, 1961.

He was raised by his mom and her parents, who were from Kansas.

He went to elementary school in Indonesia, where his mom was living w her 2nd husband.

He went to high school in Hawaii. Played basketball. Went by the nickname "Barry."

His mom and her parents were middle class. His mom was lower middle class in terms of money, income, wealth. On occasions his meals were paid for w food stamps.

This is conjecture but he probably was quiet, introspective and thoughtful. Obama the man is introspective and thoughtful. Most boys are quiet, and Obama was a black kid w a white mom and white grandparents in Indonesia and Hawaii.

I don't know what it was like - I grew up Jewish in Staten Island at a time when there was one Jewish family per square mile - one family out of about 500 families - that's 0.2% - and had my share of "incidents" involving religion and bigotry. There were some colorful people in my neighborhood, but except for one kid with a Native American grandparent, there were no "people of color." None in my elementary school or Junior high. I was the only Jewish kid in in my class, I think my grade, until 4th grade. Then it was me and a very cute Jewish girl named Laurie. But I digress.

In the south he would have been a scandal. In Indonesia he was a paradox - a black kid w a white mom and Indonesian step-father. Privileged as an American, and yet conscious of it. In Hawaii there are 4 groups: Whites, Chinese, Japanese, and Hawaiians. A black kid w a white mom in the 1960's would have been his own category, especially with a half-Indonesian kid-sister. And divorce was uncommon and scandalous back in the 60's.  

My wife - who's from Eastern Europe - asks why we say he's Black because his mom was white. But she doesn't really understand race in America. A black friend of mine says I don't understand race in America from a black person's perspective, and, lawyer that he is, he makes a cogent argument, based on facts.

What else do we know?

Obama graduated Columbia University, then Harvard Law, and didn't go to either as a legacy kid. Ergo, he must be pretty smart and capable of hard work.

He went to Chicago trying to help poor people.  Met and married Michelle. He lost one or two elections early on. Got elected to the State Legislature, then the US Senate, then the Presidency.  

As we saw in the 2012 White House Press Correspondant's Dinner, he is able to laugh at himself. That evening he grinned ruefully when Seth Meyers said "I don't know who among the Republicans can beat you, but I do know who could beat you - the Barack Obama of 2008. Remember him?" And Obama himself, after issuing the order authorizing the mission that killed Osama bin Laden, and before knowing the results of the mission, before knowing whether it failed or succeeded, calmly and ironically saluted Donald Trump, saying "choosing whether to fire Gary Busey or Meatloaf- would keep me up at night." 

As a leader, he seems to listen to people he has reason to believe are experts, and make intelligent and informed decisions based on the facts and insight. That, in my opinion, is exactly what we need in a President. The melanin content in his skin, and the texture of his hair are irrelevant to his ability to do his job.

Mittens and He Who Should Be Neutered

Why is Buddy Roemer excluded from the GOP debates? It's not that I don't like Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, it's that I have nothing but contempt for Mittens, he who should be neutered, and Santorum (who's name doesn't really mean what Google says it means) and ... Ron Paul is a white supremacist. Or he may not be, but he's their boy.

Gingrich cheats on wife 1, Jackie, with Other Woman 1, Marianne, who becomes Wife 2. Then cheats on Wife 2, Marianne, with Young Intern / Other Woman 2, Callista, who becomes Wife 3. This last while blasting Clinton for having a relationship with an intern. What Hypocrisy! What Arrogance! I mean "The Gingrich Wives" - sounds like the title of a film - a porn film.

Romney may be 'Wall Street.' But Gingrich is a lobbyist for Wall Street. Oh, I forgot- Gingrich is an historian.

Why don't I like Romney? He's not Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Bill Gates, Tom Watson, Henry Ford, Bill Hewlett, Dave Packard, Walt Disney: They created stuff. Romney looked for companies to raid.

Romney on Obama: "He had no jobs plan." But he saved all the union jobs at GM and Chrysler. "He never even managed a corner store; he was a community organizer (helping poor people). Romney didn't create jobs; he created poor people.

Mittens, Newter, Santorum, and Ron Paul will solve poverty by eliminating food stamps, Medicare. They will save poor people by allowing them to die.

So the problem with the Republican Party is that it has become the party of the lunatic fringe. Why is Buddy Roemer exlcuded from the GOP debates?

Romney: “Obama apologizes for America.” How, Mitt? By killing bin Laden? By going after Quadafi? Romney should apologize for driving for 12 hours with his dog strapped to the roof of his car.

 

John McCain was called a "Maverick" because he actually worked with Democrats.

Occupy Wall Stret

Q  What did the lawyer say to the cop?
A   Please take your motorcycle off my leg.

Q  What did the cop say to the lawyer?
A   Whack.
      You're lucky you're not in Tien Ahn Mien Square
      Whack Whack
      Or Damascus, Riyad, or Tehran
      Whack Whack Whack Whack.

Bankster: Why are you here? Don't you understand what we do?
Demonstrator: Yes I understand what you do - that's precisely why I'm here.

Republican field narrows in the 2012 Race to Lose to Obama

The loss of Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump leaves Republicans Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, and Ron Paul in the race to lose to Obama. On the Democratic side, Russ Feingold has indicated that he will challenge President Obama. Dennis Kuchinich is also said to be contemplating a run for the White House. Martha Coakley, who recently lost her bid to represent Massachusetts in the United States Senate, is also planning on registering as a candidate. She is not, however, planning on running an actual campaign.

The Democrats are planning Primary Debates in the historic Fraunces Tavern, in New York City, and the Green Dragon Tavern, in Boston, Mass. These are symbolic: a victorious General George Washingon said farewell to his troops, at Fraunces Tavern, and was inaugurated a block or two north, on the balcony of Federal Hall, on the Corner of Wall and Broad Streets, in 1789. (click). John Adams, Sam Adams, Paul Revere, and other Sons of Liberty ate, drank, and planned the Revolution at the Green Dragon. Before, after, or during their debates, someone, somewhere will say, "A black man, a Jew and a Pollack walk into a bar. The bartender asks 'What'll ya have?' The African American says 'Oval Office, straight up.' The bartender replies 'It's on the rocks.' The Jew and the Pollack say 'We'll have what he's having.' The bartender says, 'I can only serve one every four years, and he has dibs.' "

In a move that may disappoint social Conservatives, Mike Huckabee, Republican Governor turned Fox News commentator / entertainer announced that he is not running against President Obama in 2012. "I lost to McCain in 2008, I don't want to lose to Obama in 2012. Maybe I'll run in 2016. I should be able to beat Biden. And I'm making $2 Million at Fox. Why give that up?" Like most of the Republicans, he spends most of his time pandering to the far right and groveling to would-be kingmakers. But when he is candid and honest; he's refreshing and almost charismatic. Like Pres. Reagan, who raised taxes 11 times over the course of his Presidency, Huckabee, as Arkansas' Governor, raised taxes to pay for schools. He also referred to the "Club of Growth" as the "Club of Greed." Conservative kingmaker Grover Norquist seeks to apply to the United States the "Starve the Beast" tactic, a variation of the "Feed it till it Bursts" tactic Reagan applied to the Soviet Union. This has resulted in a terrible loss of infrastructure in the United States as our roads are full of potholes, bridges are crumbling, schools are declining and as the Europeans, and Chinese are pulling ahead in manufacturing, solar power, wind power, and railroads.
Donald "The Donald" Trump, the real estate mogul from New York City, in a move that was sure to disappoint comedians, also bowed out of the race. Despite giving more support to Democrats than Republicans while George Bush was President and Republicans had a majority in both the House and the Senate, Trump was talking about running as a Republican and was proud of his major accomplishments: inheriting a fortune, going bankrupt once or twice, marrying three models, divorcing two, firing people on television, hiring people to write trivial books about Donald Trump, and demanding that President Obama ask Hawaiian authorities to release his birth certificate. As profoundly important as these accomplishments may be, "The Donald" appears to believe that he was trumped by the President's recent accomplishment - authorizing the successful "Capture or Kill" mission against Osama bin Laden, which resulted in bin Laden's death and the capture of a treasure trove of information, albeit with the loss of one American helicopter. Trump will return to what he does best, firing people and boasting.

Disappointing both her supporters and the comedians, Sarah Palin has been strangely quiet. This is particularly upsetting to Tina Fey and the writers and producers of Saturday Night Live. Palin's last known public statement, that former President Bush deserves credit for the mission President Obama authorized that killed bin Laden, can only be described as a "gift" to comedians and "baffling" to rational people.

That leaves Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, and Ron Paul.
Newt Gingrich, the 69 year old former Congressman, college professor, and intellectual, who married and divorced as often as Trump, but who did not marry models, is eminently qualified to work with John Boehner and Paul Ryan as they work to end Medicare, privatize Social Security, and dismantle the government. Gingrich is committed to, as Seth Meyers put it, "stop using my tax dollars to take care of me." As the force behind the 1994 "Contract On America," Gingrich is credited with shutting down the U. S. government, and helping Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election. Maybe Gingrich's real goal is to help Obama win re-election and thereby pave the way for a Republican to lose a challenge to Joe Biden in 2016. Gingrich, who began his campaign with a Twitter note and a Youtube video, wants to hook up with young people. Depending on the age of the young people he hooks up with, Gingrich could be looking at charges of statutory rape, or just being creepy.

However, by describing the Paul Ryan budget as “Radical” and “Right wing social engineering” Gingrich, while telling the truth, may have shot his campaign in the foot. (click). What the Republican and Tea Party rank and file seem to have just found out, is that the people funding the GOP and the Tea Party LIKE Radical right wing social engineering.
Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, looks to this self-styled pundit as the putative Republican front-runner in the campaign to lose the election of 2012. While Romney opposed the Cape Wind offshore wind farm that will generate electricity without pollution, he can honestly be credited with passing the Massachusetts Health Care Plan, also known as Obama-Care 1.0. (click). Voters, however, will have to ask themselves "why elect a moderately liberal Republican like Romney when they can elect a moderately liberal Democrat like Obama.
Tim Hosni Pawlenty is an American of Polish and German, not middle-eastern origin. While he can count on the support of Hosni Mubarek, and Republicans of middle eastern-origin, he probably cannot count on the support of Democrats or independents of middle-eastern origin.
Michelle Bachmann, stepping in to fill the void left by Sarah Palin, aspires to be the next hot middle aged babe on the Republican ticket. It really doesn't matter what she says, as long as she smiles appropriately. This is terrific news for Saturday Night Live. Sources tell us that Kristen Weig is rehearsing echoing platitudes, staring into space and looking away from the camera.

Disappointing Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and Progressives in New Jersey, Chris Christie is steadfast and adamant that he is not running, yet. "I wish he'd run," said a gay, Vegan, tree-hugging community organizer, on the condition of anonymity, "it would limit the damage he'd do here in Jersey."
Herman Cain, the Pizza Guy, one of about 1.1 million African Americans in the 55 million strong Republican Party, said, "Hey, I know I don't have a snowball's chance in hell of beating Obama. And I don't know if I want to. He's doing a good job, and all those black kids look up to him. But can you imagine how many pizzas I'm gonna sell with this? Do you have any idea of the Return On Investment of this 'candidacy'? Man, it's huge. Huge! And I'm talking to Murdoch about my own reality show. We'll call it 'Pizza Man' or 'President? or Pizza Man?' or Pizza Man President! I'll get Eddie Murphy to play me."
Ron Paul, the uncompromising libertarian physician turned Congressman, who's medical practice was devoted to Medicare patients, wants to legalize all drugs, including marijuana, cocaine, LSD and heroin, and eliminate all government programs, including education, research, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, NASA, NOAA, the ATF, the IRS, the CIA, the NSA, the FBI, and the Defense Department. "Fergit the 1950's, we need to return to the 1850's," he said. When it was pointed out that the US in 1850 had about 23 million people, and about 3.2 million were slaves, the wiley Texan said "Yep, so, what's yer point? I mean, we're all slaves to our hearts and our debts."

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Copyright © 2011. Larry “XB Cold Fingers” Furman. This is a work of satire. Any resemblance to the facts is tragic, or hilarious. I report. Or I make it up. You decide.

Bin Laden. 2 Bullets. No Photos.

By XB Cold Fingers.

New York, May 5, 2011. President Obama decided that the U. S. will not release photos of bin Laden. "However," the President said, "we will release the Death Certificate, and the Long Form Death Certificate."

Donald Trump could not be reached for comment.

"We'll get the photos," said Julian Assange, of Wikileaks, "even if we need to use 'Photoshop.'"

"Conspiracy theorists," Assange continued, "are free to use 'Photoshop' to create their own photos. Other conspiracy theorists are free to use audio and video editing systems to create fake recorded messages from Osama 'proving' that bin Laden is still alive. Wilileaks will pay for any legitimate looking 'proof.' "

The Pakistan government has joined Wikileaks and is preparing a Request for Proposal for the best "proof" that the May 1, 2011 commando raid by US Navy Seals was either:

A) In Afganistan, 35 miles from Kabul, not in Pakistan, 35 miles from Islamabad and down the road from the Pakistani military academy,
B) Carried out by Pakistani authorities against Indian terrorists living in Pakistan,
C) Carried out by Israeli agents against Hamas and in Gaza,
D) Carried out by Hamas and Hezbollah against Zionists living in Pakistan,
E) Carried out by the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society against Japanese whalers, or
F) All of the above.

Budget conscious Representative Paul Ryan complained about the cost of the mission. "Bin Laden," he said, "was shot twice. Did we need to use two rounds? Wasn't that twice the ammunition needed? Wasn't that a 50% waste of resources? And we lost a helicopter. Does the President know how much those cost? Why wasn't this job outsourced to the lowest bidder in China or India?"

Speaking from the campaign trail, the cost-conscious isolationist libertarian doctor Representative Ron Paul said "Eight years ago Pres. Bush said 'Mission Accomplished.' What did Obama hope to prove?"

Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann, who hopes to be the first Republican Cougar running for President, echoed Rep. Paul, adding "In 2005 Pres. Bush shuttered the CIA's hunt for Bin Laden and shifted efforts to Iraq, and he got Saddam. What does Obama hope to accomplish?"


Sarah Palin, the community organizer who quit her job as Governor of Alaska to focus on her "work" as a microblogger on Twitter and Facebook, said "How's that hopey changey thing working out for you?"

Charles Koch, the billionaire who 'secretly' funds the Tea Party, and foots much of the bill for Palin's $1.0 million a year in appearance fees and wardrobe upgrades said "Obama had to say 'Yea' or 'Nay.' What did he actually do?"

In their statemens Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann, and Sarah Palin made reference to the observation that Obama presents America and the world with an optimistic agenda, one of hope. And Koch, while his radical political agenda is at odds with that of the President, did credit Obama with the decision to send the Navy Seals on this mission.

Saudi Prince Alaweed bin Talel, a major stockholder of News Corp, the parent of Fox News, the Wall St. Journal, and the New York Post commented privately, saying "Osama bin Laden may have made some mistakes, he may have been was a wayward son of the kingdom, but he was a subject of the House of Saud who was brutally murdered by the Americans. The King will not forget this slight."

Pakistan's former President Pervez Musharraf, who resigned his position in 2008 after allegations of corruption, and who, as a young man, studied in the military academy in Abbottabad a few blocks from bin Laden's palatial hideout said "Pakistani intelligence was either duplicitous or incompetent, probably incompetent." Musharraf should know - he was President of Pakistan when bin Laden moved in to the Abbattabad hideout.

Former President George W. Bush, speaking to Former Defense Secretary Donald "The Other Donald" Rumsfeld, Former Vice President Dick Cheney, Former National Security Advisor Condaleeza Rice, and former advisor Karl Rove said "I told you we should have gotten him. But you didn't listen to me. And I was 'the Decider.' " Rice said "you decided to agree with what we told you, that the Mission was Accomplished." Rove said "I was your brains, remember?" Rumsfeld said "the outcome has proven to be one of those things that was known to be unknowable." Cheney, in an undisclosed location, could not be reached for comment. He is believed to be looking for a lawyer to shoot.

* Copyright (c) 2011, XB ColdFingers. This is a work of satire. The only facts known to the author are:
A) On May 1, 2011, Osama bin Laden was killed, shot twice by American Navy Seals on a covert capture or kill mission.
B) The  mission was authorized by President Obama.
C) A helicopter was lost in the mission.
D) In 2005, the CIA turned its attention away from bin Laden.‬
E) The bit on Musharraf, while funny, is not an exaggeration.
F) The bit on Koch, while not funny, is not an exaggeration.